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　Somalia
　　
　　索马里
　　
　　One man, no vote
　　
　　一个人，没有投票权
　　
　　It is proving impossible to hold a fullydemocratic election
　　

　事实证明，实行真正的民主选举是不可能的
　　
　　
　　HOW do you hold an election withoutregistering voters? That is the question confronting Somali politicians—as wellas hordes of diplomats Ns and other international hangers-on—trying to createa functional vernment in Somalia, a country that has been without afunctioning central state apparatus since the fall of its military regime backin 1991.
　　
　　该如何举行一场不记名投票的选举呢？自1991年国家政权倒台之后，索马里一直处于军阀武装割据，国家四分五裂的无中央政府状态。这不仅是索马里政客们所遇到的一个难题，也是那些试图在索马里创设一个职能型政府的部族领袖，非政府组织和其他国际逢迎者所需要面对的问题。
　　
　　Somalia has been attempting to build avernment since 2007, when an African Union (AU) peacekeeping force occupiedthe country, after Ethiopia had invaded it a year earlier. A provisionalconstitution was drawn up in 2012, and Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, a former academicand aid worker, was elected president of a transitional vernment. The processis supposed to culminate in an election next year to create a Somali vernmentwith support across the whole country.
　　
　　自2007年，非洲联盟维和部队占领其国家以及一年前遭埃塞俄比亚入侵之后，索马里就试图建立起一个政府。2012年，他们起草了一份临时宪法，一位先前是一名学者和救援人员的哈桑·谢赫·马哈茂德，被选为过渡政府的总统。明年大选将会在全国的支持下，建立起一个新的索马里政府来取代这一临时政府。
　　
　　To the surprise of no one involved, MrHassan announced in July that a one-man, one-vote election next year will notbe possible after all. He cited the continuing fight with al-Shabab, a jihadistgroup linked to al-Qaeda, and the need to maintain national unity. That thevernment is incapable of conducting a vote in most of the country wasobviously also a factor.
　　
　　令不曾参与此事的人感到惊讶的是，哈桑总统在七月宣布，明年将实行的一人一票选举制是根本不可能的。他的论据包括持续作乱的青年党，一个与基地组织有联系的伊斯兰圣战组织以及出于维护国家统一的需要。政府不能在国家的大部分地区组织进行投票，这显然也是一个因素。
　　
　　Now that a traditional election has beenruled out, the most likely compromise, says Matt Bryden, a Nairobi-basedanalyst who was the co-ordinator of the UN’s Somalia and Eritrea MonitoringGroup until 2012, will follow the “4.5” formula. Elders from the four mainSomali clans plus various minority clans will act as representative electors.
　　
　　既然传统选举模式已经被破坏，那么最可能带来的危害也许会遵循“4.5”公式，一个居住在内罗毕的分析家，直到2012年都是联合国索马里和厄立特里亚监测组的调解人，Matt Bryden如是说。来自索马里四个主要部族和各个少数民族部族的长老将成为代表选民。
　　
　　That was roughly how Somalia’s parliament wasappointed in 2012: a group of 135 clan elders chose 275 MPs, who in turnelected Mr Hassan. A possible tweak, says Mr Bryden, would be to involverepresentatives of Somalia’s ten “federal member states”, which were alsocreated under the constitution of 2012. The idea would be to give anybody withany power a stake in the vernment’s success.
　　
　　2012年，索马里会议基本约定:由135位世袭酋长推选275名议员，然后由新议会选举产生新的总统。布莱登认为此次调整将有可能牵涉到基于2012年宪法创建的十个索马里“联邦成员国”的代表们。这个设想将会给那些在政坛上有权力的人带来一定的利益。
　　
　　So far Mr Hassan is dividing Somalis morethan uniting them. In August almost half of the MPs attempted (in vain) toimpeach him, accusing him of corruption and incompetence. Relations between thecentral vernment and the states are just as fraught.Mr Hassan did turn up tothe inauguration of the president of Jubaland, the southern strip of thecountry, on September 12th, to the surprise of some. But state leaders cannotbe forced into supporting the central vernment. The autonomous region ofSomaliland in the north, which is peaceful and in practice an independentcountry, will ignore the entire process.
　　
　　到目前为止哈桑总统一直在使索马里族人分裂，而不是使其团结起来。8月几乎一半的议员(徒劳地)试图弹劾他,指责他的腐败和无能。中央政府和美国之间的关系也同样令人担忧。让一些人意外的是，9月12日，哈桑总统出席了该国南部地带朱巴大陆总统的就职典礼。但国家领导人不能被迫支持中央政府。而地处北部，和平且独立自主的索马里兰自治区将会忽视整个过程。
　　
　　While netiations on, the 22,000 troopsdeployed under the aegis of the AU have been fighting a costly war withal-Shabab. The militants have now been kicked out of almost all urban areas,but they maintain support in large parts of the countryside and are stillcapable of launching brutal attacks. At night “they roam half of Mogadishu”,says Cedric Barnes of International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based N. OnSeptember 1st al-Shabab fighters briefly overran a Ugandan AU base, killingdozens of soldiers and taking more captive; the exact number of casualties isdisputed. That attack was just the worst of several to have occurred in recentmonths. This week a car bomb at the presidential palace killed at least fourpeople.
　　
　　在谈判过程中,先前已经部署好了的22000部队在非洲联盟的庇护下与青年党打了一场损失惨重的战争。虽然激进分子已经被赶出大部分市区,但他们依然占据着大部分农村地区，仍有能力发动残酷的攻击。“他们占据了摩加迪沙的一半”,深夜，位于布鲁塞尔的塞德里克·巴恩斯的非政府组织--国际危机小组如是说道,9月1日,青年党武装一度占领了乌干达盟基地,杀死了数十名士兵，抓获了更多的俘虏;具体的伤亡人数还有待查清，但那次攻击是近几个月来所经攻击中最惨重的一次。本周在总统府一枚汽车炸弹造成了至少四人死亡。
　　
　　Western diplomats, arguing that politicalinstability helps fuel al-Shabab’s violence, are openly frustrated by the slowprogress of netiations. On September 8th America opened a new embassy forSomalia—in Nairobi, neighbouring Kenya’s capital. But there are few levers toforce agreement. Pulling back the AU forces and cutting the UN spending thathelps sustain them are the only chips the peace-seeking diplomats have. Withal-Shabab still strong, few would want to do that. Instead, the discussiondrags on.
　　
　　西方外交官认为，因为谈判进展的缓慢，很明显地感到有些沮丧。他们认为政局的不稳定，有助于增强青少年暴力。九月八日，美国在与索马里接壤的肯尼亚首都内罗毕开设了一个新的使馆。但也有少数的势力在促使协议的达成。寻求和平的外交官唯一拥有的筹码就是，使非洲联盟势力撤出阵地以及削减联合国用于支持他们的开支。鉴于青年党仍然强大，很少有人会想这样做。取而代之的是，讨论一拖再拖。

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